South Chandler, Ocotillo Area Actives, Pendings and Closed Properties
I have put together a list of properties in the South Chandler, Ocotillo area that are Active, Pending or have Closed in the past 3 months so you can get an idea of what’s going on in certain neighborhoods. They are sorted by the name of the community and then by square footage. The link to the list contains the following communities in which there is an Active, Pending or Closed (within the past 3 months) property as of April 30th:
Alma Park Place, Alma Ranchettes, ALMA SCHOOL PLACE, Arden Park, AVALON AT DOBSON CROSSING, BALBOA @ OCOTILLO, Bridges at Ocotillo, BRITTANY HEIGHTS, CALLOWAY AT THE VINEYARDS, Calypso, Cantabria Shores, Carino Estates, Carino Villas Condominiums, Carmel Bay at Ocotillo, CARRIZAL, Catalina Shores at Ocotillo, CLEMENTE RANCH, COMANCHE HEIGHTS, Corona Del Mar, Cottonwood , Springs, Cottonwood Springs, Crescent Falls Fulton Ranch, CROWN POINT, CYPRESS POINT, Eden Estates, Embarcadero at Ocotillo, Enclave @ Ocotillo Lakes, Estates at Ocotillo, Estates at Vintage Villas, FOX CROSSING, Fulton Ranch, Fulton Ranch Gallery, Germann Country Estates, Gila Butte Estates, HARBOUR CLUB AT OCOTILLO, HOMESTEAD PARK, Ironwood Vistas, LAGUNA COVE, Legend At Ocotillo, MONTEFINO VILLAGE, Monterey At The Vineyards, Monterey Bay, Monterey Bay at Ocotillo, Oakwood Hills, OAKWOOD LAKES, Ocotillo, Ocotillo East, Ocotillo Lakes, Pecos Ranch, Pecos Ranch Estates, PECOS VISTAS, Peninsula, Ryan Estates, San Martin at the Vineyards, Santorini Shores, Serenity Shores, Shoreline at Fulton Ranch, SIENNA HEIGHTS, SILVERLAKE, SOMERCREST AT THE VINEYARDS, SPYGLASS BAY, STILLWATER COVE, Stonefield, Stonefield Colony, Stonefield Enclave, Talante, The Peninsula, TRISTAN, VILLAGE AT DOBSON CROSSING, VILLAS AT OCOTILLO, WATERMARK AT OCOTILLO, WILDROSE VILLAS and Windward.
South Chandler, Ocotillo Area Actives, Pending and Closed Properties
Currently, there are 89 Active, 146 Pending (includes short sales most of which are noted as AWC) and 204 Closed (since January 30, 2012) properties in this South Chandler or Ocotillo area, located from the 202 to Chandler Heights Boulevard and Price Road to Arizona Avenue. These numbers, including the information on the spreadsheet I put together are significantly different that a few months ago. If you’re a buyer who is of the mindset that you can low ball offers or get closing cost credits, hopefully you’re working with an agent that has advised you that strategy is not going to get your offer accepted. Many if not most properties right now are getting multiple offers within a day or two.
If you’re thinking of making a move, make it a “Weiss” one!
Stephanie Weiss 480.273.7472 Stephanie Weiss Moves
Chandler Closings for March 2012
When comparing my January 2011 blog “Chandler Closings December 2010” to the past month, March 2012, there have been significant changes in the market since then:
Dec 2010
Total Inventory 2,737
Active 1,885
Pending 852
Chandler Closings 454
Lender owned 184 (41%)
Regular transactions 170 (38%)
Short Sales 93 (21%)
Averages for each zip code:
| Zip Code | DoM | Sq Ft | List Price | Sold Price | $ PSF |
| 85224 | 91 | 1683 | $ 148,600 | $ 144,073 | $ 81 |
| 85225 | 112 | 1483 | $ 113,448 | $ 109,487 | $ 71 |
| 85226 | 123 | 1520 | $ 151,055 | $ 143,568 | $ 91 |
| 85248 | 123 | 2293 | $ 273,076 | $ 258,005 | $ 106 |
| 85249 | 128 | 2515 | $ 257,664 | $ 248,611 | $ 99 |
| 85286 | 101 | 2334 | $ 240,779 | $ 233,790 | $ 100 |
March 2012
Total Inventory 1,849
Active 591
Pending 1,258
Chandler Closings 533
Lender owned 80 (15%)
Regular transactions 308 (58%)
Short Sales 145 (27%)
Averages for each zip code:
| Zip Code | DoM | SQFT | List Price | Sold Price | SP-LP % | $ PSF |
| 85224 | 62 | 1653 | $ 134,299 | $ 134,835 | 101% | $ 87 |
| 85225 | 74 | 1599 | $ 127,559 | $ 125,381 | 98% | $ 77 |
| 85226 | 94 | 1649 | $ 164,411 | $ 164,101 | 100% | $ 98 |
| 85248 | 112 | 2267 | $ 253,342 | $ 245,461 | 97% | $111 |
| 85249 | 96 | 2819 | $ 259,057 | $ 253,408 | 98% | $100 |
| 85286 | 72 | 2016 | $ 256,736 | $ 250,899 | 99% | $103 |
The 533 closings in March 2012 consisted of 198 (38%) cash, 194 (36%) Conventional loan, 111 (21%) FHA and 28 (5%) VA transactions. With current foreclosures down significantly, lender owned properties only made up 15% of all closings for March 2012 while regular transaction were at 58%, a 20% increase from 15 months ago!
Average Sold Price has dropped in zip codes 85224 and 85248 while 85225, 85226, 85249 and 85286 all went up. Price per square foot has increased in all zip codes.
Currently, we have a 2.5 months supply of inventory and properties are getting multiple offers. I submitted an offer on behalf of a client that had 12 offers in which our offer was accepted….another had 20 offers! Many buyers getting loans are competing with cash buyers and this can be very frustrating for a buyer so make sure you have an experienced real estate agent.
If you’re thinking of making a move and would like an in-depth analysis of a particular area or neighborhood, give me a call.
Stephanie Weiss 480.273.7472. Stephanie Weiss Moves
Facts on the 3.8% Health Care Tax
A 3.8 percent levy tax on certain investment income was included in healthcare legislation two years ago, and now misinformation about the tax’s application to home sales is being passed along over the Internet and e-mail, throwing some prospective home sellers into a panic. In actuality, very few owners will be affected by the new tax taking effect in 2013.
The tax will only be on investment income of upper income taxpayers. Included in the definition of investment income is capital gains from home sales above a certain amount and for households whose income is above a certain amount. This means individuals who make $200,000 a year or more, or married couples who earn at least $250,000 a year are affected. Additionally, the tax is only applied to home sales if the proceeds exceed $250,000 for an individual, or $500,000 for married couples. And there still are other income and tax particulars that are considered before the 3.8 percent tax is triggered.
The National Association of REALTORS® recommends that members become familiar with the tax, but avoid coaching their clients on the policy because the amount of tax will vary from individual to individual as the elements that comprise adjusted gross income differ from taxpayer to taxpayer. NAR has published a brochure on how the tax works, which is now available online.
Obama Care Real Estate Tax (PDF).
Source: NAR Realtor.org
Campo Verde, Chandler, Arizona
Campo Verde, Chandler, Arizona is located at the southeast corner of Frye and Alma School roads and is probably one of my favorite Chandler area neighborhoods for it’s Santa Fe and Tuscan style home designs, location and general overall appeal. Campo Verde in Chandler was built in 2005 and 2006 by Meritage Homes and has approximately 102 lots. Prior to the homes being built back in 2004-05, there was a furious lottery going on for these lots. People were signing up just to get in the community without knowing where their lot would be located. Campo Verde has a mix of one and two-story homes ranging from 2,300-4,200 square feet and is a lovely community! Centrally located, it is just 3 miles from Chandler Fashion Center and across the street from San Marcos Golf Course.
Currently there are no active listings in this community and only 1 pending listing (with multiple offers) priced at $275,000 or $97 psf (2,830 sf). There were 3 cIosings within the past 3 months and 10 within the past year averaging $286,000 or $87 psf. The lowest price was $216,000 or $93 psf (2,321 sf) while the high was $393,000 or $94 psf (4,180 sf). Campo Verde Feb 2012 stats .The HOA fees in Campo Verde are approximately $70 per month. If you are interested in buying or selling a home in the Chandler area or neighboring cities such as Gilbert, Sun Lakes, Phoenix, Tempe or Scottsdale, please give me a call.
Stephanie Weiss, 480.273.7472
http://StephanieWeissMoves.com
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ARMLS STAT 2011 Year In Review
STAT 2011 Year in Review focuses on the state of the Valley’s recovery over the last twelve months, placing the gains and losses over the year in perspective. Overall, the tale is positive.
SALES
Sales rebounded in 2011 enthusiastically, topping out at 101,436, the second highest total sales of the decade. It was surpassed only by 2005 with 104,725 sales, at the height of the real estate bubble. STAT and other conventional wisdom have focused on late mid 2002 and 2003 to mid 2004 as our last normal markets. Total sales for 2002, 2003 and 2004 were 67,950, 80,052 and 98,922 respectively, and 2011 compares favorably.
INVENTORY
Total new listings in 2011 (121,041) fell slightly below the 2002 figure of 125,738. Correcting itself from the decade high 173,363 after the housing bubble burst in 2006.
MONTHS SUPPLY OF INVENTORY (MSI)
The decade MSI pattern follows the Valley’s journey from its normal market (starting in 2002 to mid 2004) through the buying and selling frenzy of mid decade (late 2004 – early 2006) to the correction of the late decade (2007 – 2010). Average MSI in 2011, 3.81, more closely re-sembled the average MSI of 2003 (4.31), at the midpoint of our last normal market.
DAYS ON MARKET
Marketwide days on market (DOM), while not indicative of DOM in smaller market niches, is a measure of overall market health. In 2011 DOM started the year at 113 and continued on a downward trend to finish the year at 95.
FORECLOSURES PENDING
Foreclosures pending, which fuel the Valley’s foreclosure sales, reached their pinnacle in No-vember 2009 at 50,568, and finished 2011 at 19,979, 60.49% below the decade high. The av-erage foreclosures pending per year stubbornly held at 44,237 and 44,698 for 2009 and 2010. In 2011 it took an abrupt downward turn all year.
DISTRESSED SALES
Distressed properties as a percent of sales started the year at 70.2%. Despite a series of hic-cups in direction over the course of 2011, it crashed through the 60% barrier the last two months of the year, at 59.4% and 59.8% respectively. Not only did the percent drop 10.4% over 2011, but the short sale to foreclosure mix shifted by year end, to see short sales over- take foreclosures for the first time, albeit by a small amount.
PRICING
Pricing remains the last bastion of resistance to the Valley’s recovery. Both List and Sales median and average prices showed very little movement over the course of 2011, stagnating at the presumed bottom. Median List price started 2011 at $124,900 and finished the year not much higher at $129,900. Average List price followed the same pattern, starting at $204,300 in January and finishing in December at $200,200.
Sales pricing mimicked the same lackluster performance of List pricing. Median Sales price began with $110,000 and ended 2011 at $117,000, well below the median List price. Average Sales price in January was $157,000 and ended at $162,200. All four pricing metrics, List and Sales, took a full twelve months to go practically nowhere. On a positive note, given how long pricing has stalled, the Valley’s pricing has probably hit bottom. What is in dispute is how long it will stay there.
Pricing cannot correct itself until the forces of supply and demand equalize. Both List and Sales pricing are cur-rently unduly influenced by the large numbers of distressed properties that compete for buyers. The slowing of foreclosures pending, if continued at the current rate, should stabilize in 2012, leading to a gradual decline to normal levels of foreclosures in the active property pool. Likewise, growing lender appetite for short sales over foreclosure will also diminish foreclosure influence on pricing.
National predictions on home prices are a slow but steady upward climb in 2012. Given 2011’s underpinning metrics (inventory, sales, MSI and foreclosures pending), the Valley’s pricing is poised to gain traction in 2012.
UNEMPLOYMENT and JOB GROWTH
Phoenix Metro started the year with a 9.28 unemployment rate, with the rate’s overall trend line for 2011 downward. Preliminary figures for November are estimated at 7.7%3, a drop of 1.58% from January, wetting our appetite for the December’s final. Arizona ended 2011 as a top ten growth state, now adding jobs faster than the national average.
THE 2011 FINAL TALLEY
In the 2011 “gaining momentum” column, STAT places unit sales, total inventory, marketwide MSI, falling DOM, declining foreclosures pending, distressed property’s falling % of sales, falling unemployment and job growth. In the stagnant “needs improvement” column, STAT cites all four pricing metrics: median and average List and Sales prices. In the loss column, STAT sees little that is moving in the wrong direction.
All in all, 2011 was a pretty good year on the road to recovery.
Source of Report and to review the full report, go to: ARMLS 2011 Year In Review
10 Ways to Prevent Costly Mold Damage to Your Home
Fixing mold damage is an expensive and time-consuming home repair. But you can save time and money by implementing these 10 ounces of prevention.
Mold spores are always present indoors, particularly in humid areas. You can minimize mold growth, however, by buying a humidity monitor, which helps you keep track of home moisture that lets these spores colonize.
Here are 10 more ways to control and combat mold in your home.
1. Eliminate clutter
Cast a critical eye on household clutter, and pare down your stuff. Clutter blocks airflow and prevents your HVAC system from circulating air. Furniture and draperies that block supply grilles cause condensation. All this moisture creates microclimates in your home that welcome and feed mold growth.
So throw out things you don’t love or don’t use. Push furniture away from vents and grilles to keep air circulating. On humid, still days, run a couple of fans to keep air moving.
2. Control indoor climate
Mold problems often emerge during hot, humid summers when you’re tempted to play with the air conditioner. But set the thermostat too high, and the air conditioner won’t dehumidify your air effectively; set it too low, and you create cold surfaces where water vapor can condense.
To prevent moisture problems, and maximize energy efficiency, set the thermostat at 78 degrees F.
3. Shut windows and doors when AC is on
When you open windows and doors, you let air conditioning escape, waste money, and invite humid air into your cooler home: This causes condensation, which mold loves. So keep doors and windows shut when the AC is humming.
Also, maintain your home at around 80 degrees when you’re on vacation or at work. Too often, we bump the thermostat up to 85 degrees, or turn off the AC when we’re away. This raises temperature and humidity, which creates the ideal home for mold.
4. Properly size your AC unit
Make sure your air conditioning unit is properly sized for your house. If it’s too small, the unit will run constantly, elevating costs but not the temperature; too big, and the unit will constantly start and stop, which wastes energy, too.
Install an HVAC unit that is just right. For guidance, call an HVAC professional, or consult Energy Star’s square footage/AC capacity chart.
5. Monitor humidity
An indoor humidity monitor will help you keep track of moisture levels that, ideally, fall between 35% and 50% relative humidity; in very humid climates, at the height of summer, you may have to live with readings closer to 55%.
But if you reach 60% relative humidity, it’s time to look for the source of the added moisture; above 70% relative humidity, certain species of mold can begin growing.
Indoor humidity monitors start at about $20; more sophisticated models that simultaneously and remotely track several rooms can climb to $300.
6. Evaluate your AC
If you get a high humidity reading, first make sure your air conditioning is doing its job.
Is it set to the proper temperature?
Is it cycling on and off periodically?
Does it blow cold air when it reaches the set point?
Are coils clean?
Inspect the condensate drain pipe (the narrow white pipe sticking out the side) to make sure it’s dripping regularly. If it isn’t, the pipe is blocked and water may be accumulating inside the unit–or on your floor. If you suspect a problem, call your HVAC professional.
7. Look for standing water
If the air conditioner isn’t the issue, search for standing water or chronic dampness that is increasing indoor humidity and providing a lovely environment for mold.
Check for puddles or dampness around hot water tanks, sump pumps, freezers, refrigerators, basement doors, and windows. Inspect crawl spaces for ground water dampness or foundation leaks.
8. Cover crawl space
Ground water seeping into crawl spaces can add gallons of moisture vapor into your house every day. The simplest defense is to cover crawl space floors with a plastic vapor barrier–6 mil polyethylene (landscapers plastic)–that traps moisture in the ground.
If you crawl in your crawl space, use a heavier plastic that won’t rip as easily: Some 20 mil plastic coverings are on the market.
9. Add a dehumidifier
A dehumidifier removes excess moisture from the air.
You can buy a whole house dehumidifier ($1,100 to $1,800) that attaches to your furnace, treats air throughout the house, and connects to a drain so you never have to empty a tank. If you live in very humid areas, a whole-house system is the way to go.
If you have occasional bouts of dampness and musty smells, a portable dehumidifier will suffice ($150 to $200).
Most models have an auto shutoff that keeps the unit from overflowing when the storage tank is full. Some portables have a hose hookup that automatically sends water into a nearby floor drain.
10. Call a professional
If you can’t find the moisture problem on your own, or you aren’t sure how to correct a problem you do find, call a home inspector or indoor air quality consultant. Look for credentials from a respected industry organization, such as the American Society of Home Inspectors or the Indoor Air Quality Association. A house call will likely run $250 or more.
Mold remediation isn’t necessarily covered by home owners insurance, which typically pays only if the problem results from a sudden emergency covered in your policy, such as a burst pipe. Insurance usually doesn’t pay if the problem results from deferred maintenance or floodwaters (unless you have flood insurance).
By: Karin Beuerlein
“Visit HouseLogic.com for more articles like this. Reprinted from HouseLogic.com with permission of the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®.”
http://www.houselogic.com/
Gilbert Arizona Real Estate Update
Gilbert, Arizona is a very popular location for alot of my buyer clients. Gilbert is centrally located in the southeast metro Phoenix area and accessed by the 101, 60 and 202 freeways. Gilbert is known for it’s good schools, being a very family oriented commmunity, shopping, has lots of newer homes and is close to both Intel plants in Chandler. Alot of my Intel clients actually prefer living in Gilbert, Arizona.
In October 2011, Gilbert had 393 single-family closings with an average sales price of $182,500, $85 per square foot and on the market 86 days. These transactions consisted of 32% cash transactions, 34% Conventional loans and 34% FHA/VA loans.
If you’ve tried to purchase a property in Gilbert lately for under $200,000, it’s likely you were competing with multiple buyers. It can be frustrating for buyers that are dependant on obtaining a loan when competing with cash buyers since most sellers are more inclined to accept “lower” cash offers because there is no loan or appraisal contingency. I’m also seeing many sellers counter buyers offers with a waiver of the appraisal contingency and requiring buyers to make up the difference. In other words, on a conventional loan transaction, if the contract price is $200,000 and the appraisal comes in at $195,000, you could be paying an additional $4,000 down at closing.
Conventional Loan:
$200,000 contract price = $40,000 down payment, $160,000 loan
$195,000 appraisal = $44,000 down payment, $156,000 loan
FHA Loan:
$200,000 contract price = $7,000 down payment, $193,000 loan
$195,000 appraisal = $11,825 down payment, $188,175 loan
If you’re a buyer looking for properties in Gilbert, Chandler, Mesa, Queen Creek or San Tan Valley or need a market analysis, contact me at 480.273.7472 or Stephanie Weiss Moves.
Gilbert Public Schools
San Tan Village Shopping
Gilbert Crossroads Towne Center
The Heritage District in Gilbert, AZ
Town of Gilbert, AZ Official Site
Gilbert Chamber of Commerce
Phoenix Metro Inventory Update
Today, October 20, 2011, as I compare information to the same blog I did in February 2010 at Phx Metro Inventory Update Feb 2010, I’m amazed at how much has changed since then. The Phoenix Metro area has approximately 38,819 total listings (inventory) of which 19,090 (or 50%) are currently pending and 19,727 (50%) are active compared to 2010 when we had 53,105 total listings with 34% (17,733) of those pending and 67% (35,372) active. Phx Metro Inventory Update 2011 Oct
In the under $100K range while the total amount of inventory is slightly lower than 2010, the 2011 pending transactions are exceeding the actives now by 54% and the absorption rate is 65%!
Inventory is shrinking in all price ranges and based on the overall absorption of actives listings, we currently have a 3.34 months supply. Obviously new listings are always showing up on the market but those are dropping as well.
If you’ve been sitting on the sidelines, now may be a good time to make a decision and make your move, especially with interest rates as historically low as they are now.
If you’re thinking of making a move, please give me a call at 480.273.7472 or contact me at StephanieWeissMoves.com
Maricopa County Foreclosure Rate Drops!
Contrary to statements by the media, the Maricopa County foreclosure rate dropped in August. There were 2,914 trustee sales for single family homes in Maricopa County in the calendar month of August. There were 2,701 similar sales in July. You might think that this indicates trustee sales were increasing. However you would be wrong.
There were only 20 working days on which trustee sales could be held in July, while there were 23 in August. This means that we should have expected the August number to be 15% higher if the daily foreclosure rate was flat. In fact the daily rate of foreclosure fell by 6% from 135 per working day in July to 127 per working day in August, continuing the strong downward trend we have seen since March.
This indicates how overly-simplistic mathematical logic can send entirely the wrong message that foreclosures are increasing when they are not. Our calendar is a strange device that can distort our view of the market unless we take its idiosyncrasy into account. That’s why we measure 7-day, 30-day and 90-day moving averages rather than relying purely on calendar month totals.
As of September 12 we have seen only 912 trustee sales recorded for all property types since September 1. This is an exceptionally low number. If trustee sales continue at this rate throughout September (with its 21 working days), then the total for September will be close to the total last November (with only 19 working days) when we had several institutions including Bank of America doing no trustee sales at all while they addressed the national robo-signing controversy. September looks very likely to be a very weak month for foreclosures, measured on both a calendar month and daily rate basis. In fact the 90-day average for the daily rate of foreclosure is today at the lowest level since July 2008, over 3 years ago. When correctly measured, the rate of foreclosures is currently falling fast. Do not let the stories in the media mislead you!
Source: http://cromfordreport.com
Market Summary for the Beginning of September
August was similar to July but different from the first half of 2011. Apparently spooked by the debt crisis and the corresponding turmoil in the stock market, the middle and upper end of the market went quiet in July and August, especially for homes over $2,000,000, but the demand for homes under $100,000 continued to go from strength to strength and supply is now very low in several of the lower priced locations.
Looking into the ARMLS data across all areas and types we see the following:
Sales per Month: 8,734 in August – up nearly 3% from July and up 26.5% from this time last year.
Active Listings (including AWC): 26,820 on September 1 – down 3.5% from August 1 and down 37% from this time last year.
Active Listings (excluding AWC): 19,216 on September 1 – down 4.8% from August 1 and down 47% from this time last year.
Pending Sales: 11,508 on September 1, up 0.2% from August 1, and up 17% compared with this time last year.
Listing Success Rate: 74.4% on September 1 – almost the same as on August 1 and up significantly from 57.5% on September 1, 2010.
Contract Ratio: 99.5 on September 1, up from 94.5 on August 1 and 41.3 last year at this time.
Days Inventory: 99 on September 1, down from 105 on August 1 and 172 at this time last year
Cromford Market Index™: 155.6 on September 1, up from 151.5 on August 1 and 85.5 on September 1, 2010.
Sales Price as a Percentage of List: 96.79% on September 1, up from 96.55% on August 1 and 95.75% on September 1, 2010
Please don’t waste time looking for negative signals among these numbers. There aren’t any.
The numbers say the market is in very good shape with demand far outstripping supply. However most potential homeowners (understandably) would disagree. Normal home buyers tend to pay far more attention to their emotions than local housing market data. Most people are still experiencing too much fear to consider home ownership or upgrading, with an uncertain economy, poor employment statistics and the psychology of crowds discouraging them from taking advantage of the lowest pricing in over a decade, even with low interest rates as the icing on the cake. In addition we have some very real factors keeping pricing down. Appraisals are almost universally conservative, often coming in lower than the buyer is willing to pay. Lending is highly constrained by extremely cautious underwriting. A large number of homeowners have negative equity putting a damper on their financial plans. In fact almost everything is the exact opposite of the first half of 2006, when the numbers indicated clearly that the market was headed for disaster but nobody paid any attention. Then we could see appraisals supporting ever increasing prices, lending policies were more relaxed than ever and everybody seemed to believe that prices could only go up. Indeed they believed this right up to the point of collapse.
Now it seems to be popular to believe that prices will fall further. Indeed with the current negative sentiment it is certainly possible they may fall a little further for a short while, especially if the upper end of the market stays quiet. However it is also inevitable that they will at some point increase from the current level and the market statistics indicate that this may be sooner than most people think. When demand is well above normal and supply is well below normal, prices cannot fall indefinitely. In the past the laws of supply and demand have only been ignored for about 18 months at maximum. Then we have seen them cut in with a vengeance. We have gone 9 months so far with the market indicators and pricing going in opposite directions.
So where is pricing now?
The lowest point so far for the monthly average sales price on ARMLS is $150,448 on August 25. The lowest point for the overall monthly average $/SF is $78.79, also on August 25. We are currently very slightly above that low point and drifting aimlessly.
The lowest point so far for overall monthly median sales price is $107,000 reached on February 22, with August 9, 17 and 18 all matching that level. We are currently above that low point – back around $110,000 with no clear sign of direction.
The pricing averages are lower than February but the medians are not. This is caused by the relative weakness of the mid to high end market, a weakness which drags the averages down but has only marginal effect on medians.
In contrast to the spring, prices are now falling at the higher end of the market. The lower end has achieved stability in sales pricing while asking prices are strongly rising and pending prices are showing early signs of increases in certain markets. Competition among landlords for good rental homes is extremely strong and the markets in their favorite locations are very active. This is also reflected in prices paid at trustee sales. which are more competitive now than at any time since 2005. El Mirage, Maricopa, Tolleson, Avondale, all have extremely low levels of inventory, so low that sales volumes are now being affected. The number of lender owned homes for sale in many of these areas is a tiny fraction of the peak level of the winter of 2008/2009. In fact a comparison of REO single family home inventory in January 2009 and September 2011 is very revealing:
City-REOs Active Now-REOs Active Jan 2009-Change
El Mirage-22-295 -93%
Avondale-41-518 -92%
Maricopa-36-437 -92%
Youngtown-4-49 -92%
Tolleson-26-247 -89%
Tonopah-3-27 -89%
Anthem-9-66 -86%
Carefree-1-7 -86%
Wittmann-6-42 -86%
Queen Creek-87-569 -85%
Buckeye-83-498 -83%
Phoenix-765-4544 -83%
Apache Junction-30-152 -80%
Glendale-175-882 -80%
Coolidge-15-76 -80%
Goodyear-66-311 -79%
Litchfield Park-26-120 -78%
Peoria-109-474 -77%
Casa Grande-34-147 -77%
Surprise-135-541 -75%
Mesa-255-946 –73%
Arizona City-20-74 -73%
Eloy-6-22 -73%
Laveen-59-199 -70%
Florence-26-81 -68%
Fountain Hills-15-46 -67%
Gilbert-144-393 -63%
New River-14-36 -61%
Chandler-130-329 -60%
Scottsdale-120-284 -58%
Gold Canyon-16-37 -57%
Cave Creek-22-50 -56%
Waddell-17-33 -49%
Tempe-45-70 -36%
Paradise Valley-8-12 -33%
Sun City-48-50 -4%
Sun City West-19-16 +19%
Wickenburg-15-8 +87%
Rio Verde-6-3 +100%
Sun Lakes-6-3 +100%
Please go ahead and show this table to those who still talk of a “huge glut of foreclosed homes for sale”.
Note that the areas most affected by the foreclosure tsunami are also the ones that have had the biggest declines in lender owned inventory between 2009 and now. El Mirage used to have more REOs than the much larger city of Scottsdale. Now it has only 18% of Scottsdale’s inventory.
Maricopa County Foreclosures in August:
New notices increased by 27% over July. Some of this increases was due to the fact that August had 23 working days whereas July had only 20, but we are definitely seeing a few signs of borrowers getting into more difficulty as the economy sputters. However we must put the August count of 5,318 notices into context. It is lower than every month between March 2008 and January 2011 and so only looks bad because of the low counts between April and July.
The daily rate of trustee sales declined again but because August had more days than July, the monthly total of trustee deeds for August was 3,581, up 8% over July. However in August 2010 we had 5,015 so we are down 29% year on year.
At the trustee sales in August, 42% of the properties were purchased by third parties, setting a new record of 1,510 third party purchases.
Source: http://cromfordreport.com
